* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 09/01/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 51 53 48 44 41 36 30 26 21 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 51 53 48 44 41 36 30 26 21 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 45 46 47 44 43 44 45 45 46 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 31 29 31 16 5 3 14 26 28 25 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 5 5 2 -2 -4 1 0 1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 260 250 243 238 221 214 180 296 239 244 258 276 288 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.6 24.0 21.3 19.2 17.2 15.0 14.7 19.6 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 134 128 118 96 83 78 75 72 72 81 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 108 107 103 95 80 72 71 70 69 69 74 72 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -53.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.7 -55.1 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 52 55 54 50 47 47 49 45 45 46 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 14 15 15 11 8 6 5 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 44 40 31 40 41 14 36 11 0 -10 -12 -42 -91 200 MB DIV 14 64 52 38 31 20 12 -7 9 26 2 1 -20 700-850 TADV 1 3 5 6 8 11 4 9 12 0 -16 -17 -12 LAND (KM) 691 645 598 532 466 339 258 233 253 112 544 1027 1398 LAT (DEG N) 37.4 37.8 38.2 38.8 39.4 40.6 41.7 42.9 44.4 45.9 46.8 46.6 46.2 LONG(DEG W) 63.9 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.3 64.2 63.5 61.4 57.6 52.2 45.7 39.3 34.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 6 8 13 18 21 22 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 22 30 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 18. 13. 10. 6. 1. -5. -9. -14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 09/01/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 09/01/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 09/01/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)