* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/01/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 67 69 75 80 83 84 88 91 89 91 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 67 69 75 80 83 84 88 91 89 91 V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 65 64 64 65 68 74 80 86 90 92 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 20 19 12 7 11 2 7 6 10 7 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 2 5 1 1 -3 2 0 9 2 3 SHEAR DIR 216 215 225 227 197 193 135 265 278 289 41 294 59 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 143 144 143 146 149 151 151 153 152 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 136 136 136 134 136 137 137 136 138 136 133 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -51.2 -51.6 -50.7 -50.5 -49.2 -49.3 -48.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 61 63 54 57 49 50 49 52 51 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 25 24 27 27 30 32 31 31 36 38 38 42 850 MB ENV VOR 22 17 17 17 26 29 44 42 59 56 70 72 98 200 MB DIV 93 67 60 98 110 54 49 -21 11 12 69 1 65 700-850 TADV -1 3 3 1 7 5 4 5 9 6 9 6 1 LAND (KM) 1267 1253 1254 1201 1154 1113 1018 880 775 680 615 608 652 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.5 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.8 51.0 52.0 52.9 54.5 56.1 57.6 59.0 60.5 62.1 63.6 65.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 44 57 76 77 74 65 63 77 67 50 63 66 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 6. 5. 9. 11. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 15. 18. 19. 23. 26. 24. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/01/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/01/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/01/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 5( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)