* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 09/01/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 39 45 54 61 66 70 69 68 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 39 45 54 61 44 35 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 36 40 45 36 31 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 23 21 15 16 6 11 10 11 9 14 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -2 -6 3 0 0 -1 -2 0 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 283 274 292 297 274 272 257 259 248 222 267 272 338 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 170 168 168 168 168 167 167 166 166 164 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 168 163 158 154 150 150 148 141 138 135 135 134 133 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -50.9 -50.5 -50.1 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -49.7 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 7 9 6 9 4 2 0 1 700-500 MB RH 68 62 56 57 57 51 50 48 49 46 42 25 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 11 13 16 18 22 24 25 26 25 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -15 -6 21 18 60 82 129 114 89 83 84 200 MB DIV 50 63 37 38 79 57 54 48 42 18 -22 -5 -5 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -10 -4 -1 6 1 4 1 -8 -5 -5 4 LAND (KM) 283 244 205 190 175 138 56 5 -17 -41 -55 -41 -4 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 161 112 64 52 37 18 7 2 1 34 36 42 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 24. 31. 36. 40. 39. 38. 33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 09/01/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 09/01/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 09/01/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)