* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 09/01/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 47 46 41 39 35 32 29 27 25 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 47 46 41 39 35 32 29 27 25 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 41 39 39 41 43 47 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 30 32 35 22 10 6 11 12 22 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 4 3 4 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 260 246 244 227 211 216 218 255 255 277 281 304 317 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.1 23.5 21.2 19.3 17.8 21.2 23.8 24.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 131 124 114 95 84 79 76 86 98 103 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 105 101 94 81 75 72 70 77 85 87 93 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 51 51 53 54 53 50 45 47 43 43 43 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 14 16 15 13 9 7 5 4 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 42 30 49 51 39 -2 -8 -13 -43 -39 -40 -24 -28 200 MB DIV 61 50 38 32 43 -21 -17 -7 10 1 1 3 -17 700-850 TADV 2 8 16 11 10 5 -2 -2 0 -1 -5 -7 -2 LAND (KM) 713 663 614 553 500 442 388 367 366 677 1043 1362 1602 LAT (DEG N) 37.2 37.7 38.2 38.9 39.6 41.0 42.3 43.5 44.1 43.9 42.9 41.3 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 63.9 63.7 63.4 63.0 62.5 61.0 58.5 54.9 50.2 45.4 41.0 37.8 35.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 7 8 8 10 13 16 17 17 15 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 10 15 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 11. 6. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 09/01/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 09/01/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 09/01/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)