* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/02/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 60 62 66 70 72 79 84 87 88 85 89 V (KT) LAND 60 59 60 62 66 70 72 79 84 87 88 85 89 V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 58 57 57 58 61 68 75 81 86 89 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 17 13 13 9 5 5 2 4 1 11 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 6 3 0 -2 3 1 8 10 4 3 SHEAR DIR 220 229 241 218 191 215 209 269 326 322 20 318 91 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 144 144 145 148 151 151 153 154 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 135 135 135 134 136 138 137 137 138 135 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 -50.7 -50.3 -49.1 -49.3 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 63 62 55 54 51 48 50 50 56 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 24 26 27 29 30 28 33 35 37 37 37 43 850 MB ENV VOR 20 14 14 20 26 30 45 48 51 61 62 72 85 200 MB DIV 60 63 81 103 72 45 17 6 -16 -2 14 9 37 700-850 TADV 2 2 6 1 1 16 3 4 0 9 8 15 9 LAND (KM) 1276 1272 1207 1168 1137 1078 949 838 752 702 704 754 825 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.3 20.3 21.2 22.2 23.1 24.1 25.1 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 51.1 52.1 53.0 53.8 55.5 56.9 58.3 59.8 61.3 62.8 64.3 65.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 61 73 73 76 71 62 70 74 53 60 60 47 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 6. 10. 12. 19. 24. 27. 28. 25. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/02/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/02/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/02/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)