* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 09/02/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 42 43 40 37 35 31 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 42 43 40 37 35 31 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 37 38 38 39 39 39 38 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 29 27 30 27 14 10 14 27 34 42 52 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 5 3 2 -3 -2 0 9 9 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 248 244 223 210 220 213 263 251 249 261 276 280 N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.5 23.9 19.7 16.5 13.9 12.6 16.5 14.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 130 125 118 98 80 72 69 68 74 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 104 100 97 85 72 68 66 66 69 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -52.8 -53.7 -54.3 -55.0 -54.5 -55.2 -55.8 -56.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 56 55 56 55 51 47 43 38 45 48 49 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 17 17 16 13 9 7 6 6 6 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 53 63 49 26 -4 -18 -8 -31 -70 -91 -80 N/A 200 MB DIV 49 48 45 44 7 -18 8 21 -19 -22 -33 -17 N/A 700-850 TADV 8 15 12 9 14 3 2 -6 -36 -51 -18 8 N/A LAND (KM) 672 643 614 567 525 475 363 211 183 478 842 1236 N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 6 8 13 15 15 16 17 18 19 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 12 15 18 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 8. 5. 2. 0. -4. -10. -16. -20. -20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 09/02/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 09/02/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 09/02/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)