* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132011 09/02/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 37 41 45 55 64 68 69 70 66 61 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 37 41 45 55 64 68 69 70 46 35 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 46 54 62 70 48 40 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 19 11 16 19 6 12 14 20 26 30 20 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -1 -1 -2 -4 -5 -4 1 0 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 296 308 275 258 294 199 222 171 217 223 234 212 212 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.2 31.1 31.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 168 168 167 167 167 168 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 154 152 155 155 153 153 154 157 159 157 158 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -49.8 -49.3 -49.2 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 9 8 6 8 6 8 5 4 1 2 0 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 60 58 59 55 63 60 48 39 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 17 18 18 21 23 23 22 25 24 21 16 850 MB ENV VOR 1 1 23 21 13 42 55 112 113 119 130 147 105 200 MB DIV 53 60 92 91 75 96 59 24 24 37 35 12 23 700-850 TADV -2 -4 0 3 1 1 1 -1 -1 5 22 22 4 LAND (KM) 318 291 267 244 222 154 114 91 68 16 -36 -4 -44 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.4 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.9 30.4 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 91.5 91.7 91.9 92.0 92.0 91.9 91.8 91.7 91.6 91.3 90.7 90.0 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 154 146 127 117 105 59 19 17 13 4 52 0 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 8. 10. 9. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 11. 15. 25. 34. 38. 39. 40. 36. 31. 22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132011 THIRTEEN 09/02/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 129.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132011 THIRTEEN 09/02/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132011 THIRTEEN 09/02/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)