* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 09/02/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 40 38 36 35 33 32 31 31 31 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 40 38 36 35 33 32 31 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 36 37 37 39 41 43 46 48 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 29 29 22 8 9 14 17 17 15 11 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 2 3 -2 -4 -3 -1 0 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 241 224 214 219 208 213 242 247 273 266 303 323 9 SST (C) 28.0 27.3 26.2 25.1 23.6 21.4 20.1 18.9 20.8 24.2 25.0 25.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 127 115 105 94 84 82 79 84 100 105 110 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 103 94 86 79 74 74 73 76 86 88 91 94 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 4 5 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 49 47 46 48 47 44 42 41 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 17 16 15 11 8 7 6 6 6 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 44 13 -1 11 -10 -51 -68 -51 -44 -32 -22 200 MB DIV 48 47 38 0 -23 -2 5 24 0 18 -8 0 -2 700-850 TADV 14 8 12 10 7 12 4 -11 6 -2 -5 1 0 LAND (KM) 629 545 464 410 364 346 384 350 616 964 1206 1339 1419 LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.8 39.6 40.3 40.9 41.9 42.9 43.6 43.3 42.1 40.4 38.8 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 63.7 63.6 63.5 63.2 62.8 61.1 57.6 52.3 46.9 42.8 40.9 40.7 41.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 7 7 11 17 20 18 13 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 28 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 09/02/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 09/02/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 09/02/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)