* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/02/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 73 74 76 77 80 78 81 78 80 81 V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 73 74 76 77 80 78 81 78 80 81 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 69 69 70 70 72 76 79 82 84 84 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 20 17 18 14 11 8 7 12 16 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 3 3 1 -3 0 4 3 0 1 8 2 SHEAR DIR 246 214 212 199 202 188 212 216 298 287 303 301 325 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 143 145 148 151 153 155 154 154 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 135 133 133 136 138 138 139 137 135 133 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.1 -50.1 -49.8 -49.4 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 9 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 58 58 53 52 49 52 47 52 54 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 25 24 27 27 26 25 30 28 33 34 38 42 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 18 16 21 35 33 34 42 47 50 68 87 200 MB DIV 66 72 60 47 44 16 17 -5 20 6 -10 -23 7 700-850 TADV 8 7 8 13 17 10 6 11 6 11 6 6 4 LAND (KM) 1214 1179 1154 1151 1093 979 878 820 795 818 888 931 912 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.7 21.9 23.1 24.1 25.2 26.3 27.1 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 52.1 53.0 53.9 54.7 55.4 56.7 58.2 59.7 61.2 62.7 64.1 65.6 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 72 76 68 63 61 66 68 45 50 44 44 41 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 5. 3. 7. 7. 11. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 16. 13. 16. 13. 15. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/02/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/02/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/02/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 5( 11) 5( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)