* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 09/02/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 36 36 35 33 32 28 23 16 15 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 36 36 35 33 32 28 23 16 15 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 37 39 41 43 44 43 41 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 26 25 19 17 9 8 17 17 25 35 46 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 1 5 1 -4 -5 -3 0 -3 2 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 226 209 212 214 207 231 257 259 259 287 292 308 N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.0 24.8 22.7 19.3 17.6 19.7 17.7 16.9 15.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 122 114 104 93 80 76 81 76 74 72 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 100 99 94 89 82 74 71 74 70 69 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -54.2 -54.9 -55.6 -56.7 -56.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 52 48 46 49 47 46 57 52 61 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 15 12 10 8 6 6 6 6 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 67 43 16 2 -24 -28 -23 -38 -53 -79 -91 N/A 200 MB DIV 44 48 17 -5 -24 6 0 21 -7 -10 -26 -11 N/A 700-850 TADV 16 7 15 7 1 -1 -5 -16 -12 -18 -21 31 N/A LAND (KM) 652 627 607 576 539 529 395 532 861 1215 1538 1117 N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 10 12 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 3. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -7. -12. -19. -20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 09/02/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 09/02/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 09/02/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)