* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/02/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 70 70 72 74 75 76 73 76 77 77 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 70 70 72 74 75 76 73 76 77 77 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 68 68 68 70 72 75 77 79 80 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 19 20 14 16 11 11 4 7 9 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 0 1 2 3 11 9 11 7 1 4 SHEAR DIR 218 202 202 195 188 209 174 227 292 309 332 309 311 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 143 145 148 151 153 155 154 154 154 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 133 131 133 136 138 137 138 136 135 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.1 -50.7 -49.7 -49.4 -48.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 62 57 58 55 51 52 50 48 48 53 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 22 25 25 22 25 27 29 30 28 34 35 38 850 MB ENV VOR 21 24 22 27 28 35 41 41 45 38 54 64 93 200 MB DIV 64 58 38 28 27 -2 38 8 38 6 18 -19 -7 700-850 TADV 6 6 14 18 8 7 6 12 9 7 11 9 5 LAND (KM) 1191 1167 1152 1142 1085 978 861 804 810 830 869 873 850 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.9 21.0 22.1 23.2 24.4 25.4 26.2 26.7 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 52.7 53.5 54.3 54.9 55.5 56.8 58.5 60.0 61.4 62.9 64.5 66.0 67.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 73 66 64 61 64 65 63 44 48 44 46 42 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 7. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 8. 11. 12. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/02/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/02/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/02/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 7( 9) 10( 18) 7( 24) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)