* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132011 09/02/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 52 60 70 74 76 73 65 56 48 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 52 60 45 34 30 29 26 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 48 56 44 33 29 33 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 13 5 4 11 14 19 23 26 21 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 1 0 0 -1 -4 -3 6 0 2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 271 257 271 263 187 235 192 219 223 212 203 225 227 SST (C) 30.9 30.9 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.2 31.2 30.4 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 168 169 168 168 169 170 170 158 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 155 156 155 156 159 154 155 160 165 147 128 122 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.2 -49.9 -49.5 -49.4 -49.0 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 8 6 6 3 3 0 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 61 57 56 55 57 54 65 56 49 37 31 33 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 20 21 23 24 27 25 27 25 21 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 14 10 -5 6 34 37 102 123 133 130 112 92 98 200 MB DIV 75 84 61 67 102 61 80 59 44 -4 3 16 5 700-850 TADV -2 0 5 5 6 3 0 0 10 14 9 4 10 LAND (KM) 200 176 156 138 121 28 -57 -48 -38 20 -133 -250 -299 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 29.3 30.1 30.1 29.7 30.2 31.9 32.9 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 91.5 91.7 91.8 91.9 91.9 91.5 91.3 90.9 90.1 89.1 88.1 87.4 86.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 4 2 3 4 7 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 119 99 79 48 17 5 49 49 53 2 36 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 20. 24. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 5. 6. 5. 1. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 35. 39. 41. 38. 30. 21. 13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132011 LEE 09/02/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132011 LEE 09/02/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132011 LEE 09/02/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)