* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 09/02/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 35 33 30 28 27 27 25 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 35 33 30 28 27 27 25 22 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 34 34 34 36 39 43 47 48 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 22 21 10 8 12 18 17 18 20 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 5 1 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 -4 -5 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 215 216 221 218 232 261 263 282 299 345 35 53 78 SST (C) 26.8 25.7 24.1 23.0 21.9 20.0 20.2 24.0 24.7 25.6 26.1 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 122 111 99 93 88 81 82 100 104 109 112 112 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 93 85 81 78 74 74 86 88 90 91 90 91 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 50 50 50 47 44 40 44 42 41 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 11 10 7 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 62 30 6 -12 -13 -17 -6 4 23 11 0 -31 -64 200 MB DIV 40 10 -15 -27 -17 -7 18 9 19 -18 -40 -5 -18 700-850 TADV 10 13 7 0 4 1 0 -11 -3 0 1 4 4 LAND (KM) 597 561 503 472 480 401 562 905 1240 1476 1594 1651 1716 LAT (DEG N) 38.9 39.8 40.7 41.5 42.2 43.1 43.3 42.5 41.1 39.6 38.5 37.9 37.3 LONG(DEG W) 61.8 60.9 60.0 58.5 56.9 52.7 47.8 43.3 39.7 37.7 37.1 36.9 36.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 14 15 17 17 16 13 8 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -10. -13. -18. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 09/02/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 09/02/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 09/02/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)