* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/03/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 66 67 67 69 68 67 70 72 73 75 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 66 67 67 69 68 67 70 72 73 75 V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 65 65 65 65 66 67 69 71 74 77 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 24 23 20 23 14 13 6 7 5 2 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 0 0 4 6 8 9 15 11 10 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 195 200 196 189 184 196 176 180 188 269 358 329 339 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 146 147 151 151 153 155 153 152 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 133 133 135 139 138 139 138 135 133 134 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.3 -50.5 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 64 58 59 56 55 53 49 50 49 51 52 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 23 23 20 23 22 24 24 23 27 29 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 24 28 34 40 39 40 36 32 40 44 58 200 MB DIV 35 22 24 24 12 -4 17 47 37 24 6 9 -18 700-850 TADV 7 16 19 11 2 0 4 8 6 7 5 0 3 LAND (KM) 1130 1119 1098 1040 985 873 754 702 724 773 825 842 884 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.7 20.1 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.3 25.3 26.1 26.9 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 53.9 54.6 55.3 55.9 56.5 57.9 59.7 61.3 62.8 64.4 65.8 67.3 68.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 69 64 61 63 68 76 54 57 57 48 45 35 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 2. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 5. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/03/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/03/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/03/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)