* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132011 09/03/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 53 57 66 71 77 77 74 63 55 44 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 53 57 47 35 37 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 52 56 48 35 36 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 7 8 10 8 19 19 19 20 24 11 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 -1 -2 0 0 -5 0 12 4 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 243 267 236 228 214 186 195 227 218 213 210 216 224 SST (C) 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.9 29.9 29.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 169 169 166 151 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 155 155 158 157 156 155 156 156 155 137 124 114 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.0 -50.5 -50.1 -50.6 -49.5 -49.6 -49.4 -49.3 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 8 8 4 5 1 2 1 3 0 2 700-500 MB RH 56 54 57 55 52 60 70 59 51 34 41 40 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 23 24 25 26 27 25 28 28 27 21 16 11 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -2 11 33 34 75 101 142 140 145 125 87 83 200 MB DIV 86 72 76 103 100 41 59 38 84 -3 6 15 25 700-850 TADV -3 12 5 5 7 0 -9 -6 8 8 13 3 0 LAND (KM) 140 119 101 69 37 -33 -28 7 -28 -73 -192 -320 -433 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.6 31.2 32.4 33.4 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.5 91.6 91.6 91.6 91.5 91.2 90.7 90.1 89.3 88.5 87.6 86.8 86.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 84 52 21 14 7 49 52 0 38 34 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 6. 6. 5. -1. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 31. 37. 37. 34. 23. 15. 4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132011 LEE 09/03/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132011 LEE 09/03/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132011 LEE 09/03/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)