* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/03/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 61 62 64 64 67 67 73 76 78 77 V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 61 62 64 64 67 67 73 76 78 77 V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 58 58 58 59 61 63 65 69 74 80 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 20 22 19 13 12 7 2 5 1 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 2 2 7 11 9 12 7 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 197 194 191 185 208 169 182 174 289 79 340 69 359 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 147 149 152 151 153 155 153 152 154 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 136 138 141 137 137 139 137 133 134 132 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -51.5 -51.0 -50.0 -50.0 -49.2 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 56 57 54 52 49 46 46 51 47 52 54 55 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 21 23 24 24 24 26 26 30 32 33 32 850 MB ENV VOR 15 18 21 27 22 26 24 29 27 40 38 40 53 200 MB DIV 13 21 15 16 0 22 9 47 0 24 -26 4 15 700-850 TADV 10 17 10 3 5 3 6 7 4 5 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1134 1096 1035 949 869 740 715 710 743 816 863 900 930 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 27.0 27.7 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.4 56.0 57.0 57.9 59.8 61.0 62.5 64.3 65.8 67.0 68.5 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 63 60 67 68 77 54 52 62 47 46 36 35 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 7. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 7. 13. 16. 18. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/03/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/03/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/03/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)