* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132011 09/03/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 59 65 70 74 70 62 51 40 28 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 44 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 54 58 47 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 9 12 12 16 22 28 33 35 30 33 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -4 5 7 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 255 234 217 202 225 179 214 212 218 215 235 232 234 SST (C) 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.0 29.0 28.2 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 169 168 167 169 170 169 150 138 129 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 158 158 156 148 153 157 141 124 112 103 101 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -49.9 -50.1 -50.4 -50.3 -49.9 -49.6 -49.2 -49.2 -48.8 -48.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 8 8 4 6 2 2 1 2 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 51 54 63 53 44 35 34 31 35 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 23 25 25 25 25 25 27 27 24 18 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR -5 5 33 40 47 103 115 122 128 110 80 99 95 200 MB DIV 64 68 92 82 48 65 27 41 84 -10 26 5 9 700-850 TADV 5 2 3 4 0 -3 -12 -13 5 5 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 114 86 52 9 -33 -72 -65 -80 -183 -314 -465 -553 -601 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.3 30.5 31.1 32.3 33.5 34.8 35.5 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 91.8 91.8 91.8 91.7 91.6 91.4 90.9 89.9 88.5 87.5 87.0 86.4 85.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 4 3 2 4 7 8 7 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 8 2 49 47 49 42 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 0. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. -4. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 25. 29. 25. 17. 6. -5. -17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132011 LEE 09/03/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132011 LEE 09/03/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132011 LEE 09/03/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)