* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/03/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 66 65 65 68 67 67 72 73 71 71 V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 66 65 65 68 67 67 72 73 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 66 66 66 66 66 67 69 72 77 81 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 20 21 23 15 15 13 13 10 5 5 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 0 7 13 5 7 2 2 1 -2 9 SHEAR DIR 194 192 185 210 197 194 189 209 272 206 336 148 194 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 150 152 153 155 155 155 153 151 146 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 137 138 140 140 140 138 137 134 131 124 116 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -51.6 -51.1 -50.9 -50.0 -50.1 -49.4 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 9 6 700-500 MB RH 57 54 52 49 50 47 49 44 50 52 54 57 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 20 22 22 20 20 24 24 24 29 30 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 17 21 26 24 34 19 27 18 18 17 24 75 126 200 MB DIV 27 31 30 -1 8 -7 0 16 35 21 30 19 32 700-850 TADV 19 9 5 8 5 5 7 2 7 7 6 6 29 LAND (KM) 1089 1016 949 877 813 714 705 763 872 943 1016 852 691 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.3 22.5 23.7 25.0 26.3 27.6 28.7 30.0 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 56.2 56.9 57.8 58.6 60.5 62.1 63.6 65.0 66.5 68.1 69.4 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 60 66 70 77 71 47 62 47 47 31 31 23 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -5. -3. -1. 2. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 0. -1. -1. 3. 4. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 3. 2. 2. 7. 8. 6. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/03/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/03/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/03/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)