* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132011 09/03/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 60 63 66 68 66 58 46 34 25 23 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 45 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 59 48 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 13 10 3 24 30 40 35 36 36 44 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 -1 -4 1 -4 -3 8 1 2 3 1 8 SHEAR DIR 248 191 186 236 184 200 230 225 245 236 256 243 236 SST (C) 31.1 31.1 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.7 30.6 30.2 29.3 28.5 27.4 26.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 168 168 169 169 170 156 143 128 120 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 157 154 154 152 149 149 142 129 119 107 100 94 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.2 -49.8 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -50.6 -49.4 -49.1 -49.0 -48.9 -48.5 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 4 3 6 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 700-500 MB RH 54 51 52 54 59 61 49 35 23 16 14 16 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 26 27 26 26 24 24 24 21 16 12 11 20 850 MB ENV VOR 4 34 40 45 80 101 114 120 115 60 54 58 73 200 MB DIV 66 114 90 40 43 40 37 53 -24 -30 -19 -23 2 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 5 0 -7 -4 -3 0 -19 -24 -6 -9 LAND (KM) 72 39 8 -24 -58 -101 -111 -182 -267 -420 -566 -520 -464 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.8 31.4 32.1 33.1 34.3 35.8 36.7 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.9 91.9 91.9 91.8 91.7 91.1 90.1 89.0 87.8 86.6 85.2 83.4 81.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 7 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 5 3 49 47 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -9. -13. -14. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 16. 8. -4. -16. -25. -27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132011 LEE 09/03/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132011 LEE 09/03/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132011 LEE 09/03/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)