* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/03/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 63 65 67 67 68 72 72 76 75 71 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 63 65 67 67 68 72 72 76 75 71 V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 59 60 60 61 62 62 65 69 74 79 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 18 16 20 13 12 7 3 6 3 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 0 5 4 14 8 8 1 -1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 185 182 204 180 180 187 164 235 273 258 130 79 50 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 151 152 152 153 155 153 155 153 148 140 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 140 140 139 140 140 137 137 133 126 117 111 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 -49.7 -49.8 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 49 48 47 50 50 52 54 59 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 23 22 21 23 23 23 25 28 28 30 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 25 33 30 23 27 17 25 19 19 32 59 200 MB DIV 39 34 -8 7 8 17 48 7 41 -14 -3 20 51 700-850 TADV 9 6 8 8 5 6 6 8 8 3 0 0 17 LAND (KM) 988 913 843 779 726 670 680 782 912 1021 937 778 646 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.8 24.0 25.4 27.0 28.5 29.9 31.1 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.2 58.0 58.9 59.7 61.4 63.1 64.5 65.8 67.0 68.3 69.3 70.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 63 72 82 71 58 58 61 49 41 28 21 12 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 5. 7. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 12. 12. 16. 15. 11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/03/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/03/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/03/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 3( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 2( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)