* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/04/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 63 64 66 66 71 71 75 77 75 74 V (KT) LAND 60 60 62 63 64 66 66 71 71 75 77 75 74 V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 59 60 61 61 63 66 70 75 79 81 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 13 13 12 9 10 5 3 4 4 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 8 11 16 6 10 5 4 0 -2 -2 6 SHEAR DIR 186 205 176 182 199 174 209 255 350 358 128 41 57 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 152 153 153 155 155 153 151 147 140 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 139 139 141 139 138 138 134 130 124 117 111 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.4 -51.2 -50.4 -50.4 -49.7 -50.3 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 54 51 49 49 46 49 47 50 52 54 57 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 20 21 20 21 20 26 25 28 29 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 30 25 14 20 10 15 17 9 15 38 70 200 MB DIV 22 0 3 17 5 20 29 18 8 9 19 21 13 700-850 TADV 3 4 5 7 7 9 5 9 5 6 0 11 12 LAND (KM) 932 858 791 744 710 687 718 838 937 1031 868 743 663 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.6 22.2 23.5 24.6 26.0 27.5 28.8 29.7 30.7 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.9 58.7 59.5 60.3 62.1 63.7 65.1 66.4 67.9 69.5 70.2 70.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 71 79 74 60 49 63 50 48 33 30 24 18 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 11. 11. 15. 17. 15. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/04/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/04/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/04/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)