* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132011 09/04/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 47 48 51 54 50 41 34 26 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 38 35 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 38 35 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 16 23 26 38 34 29 28 34 42 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -2 0 -2 -3 -2 6 1 0 -2 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 203 225 212 198 201 220 225 216 210 214 223 235 217 SST (C) 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.8 30.6 29.8 29.2 28.6 27.9 27.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 167 168 170 170 164 153 143 134 125 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 154 153 151 150 154 152 136 125 117 110 104 95 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.6 -49.7 -49.5 -49.2 -49.6 -49.3 -48.7 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 3 6 6 1 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 700-500 MB RH 53 54 60 62 59 50 40 35 29 28 31 26 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 26 25 24 23 27 23 17 13 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 86 106 111 127 130 120 106 68 54 78 49 200 MB DIV 85 67 65 58 50 44 63 -20 -1 3 -4 0 -39 700-850 TADV 11 4 0 0 -4 -8 21 11 14 4 -1 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 14 -10 -22 -41 -62 -79 -134 -211 -303 -401 -484 -501 -559 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.7 31.6 32.6 33.3 34.1 34.9 36.1 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.2 91.9 91.8 91.6 90.9 89.3 88.0 87.0 86.0 84.9 83.8 82.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 2 3 6 7 7 5 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 49 48 47 48 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -18. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -4. -10. -14. -17. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 5. -4. -11. -19. -27. -37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132011 LEE 09/04/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132011 LEE 09/04/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132011 LEE 09/04/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)