* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/04/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 65 67 72 74 74 81 82 86 87 86 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 65 67 72 74 74 81 82 86 87 86 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 62 64 65 67 69 73 78 83 86 88 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 15 15 13 8 6 1 7 4 3 1 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 14 10 7 7 4 2 -4 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 211 192 195 196 199 198 211 252 267 218 298 229 205 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 153 153 155 155 155 153 149 144 137 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 139 140 139 138 138 138 134 126 122 116 111 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -50.8 -50.7 -49.7 -49.8 -49.7 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 50 51 49 44 47 46 48 52 54 59 59 61 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 18 19 19 22 22 21 28 28 32 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR 25 25 22 5 14 10 -1 6 5 16 20 41 48 200 MB DIV 5 5 28 1 6 40 -5 34 -5 25 15 65 34 700-850 TADV 4 5 5 6 6 8 7 4 8 2 2 7 9 LAND (KM) 863 811 769 744 736 749 805 884 962 892 760 612 487 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.9 23.5 24.6 25.6 26.9 28.2 29.3 30.1 31.6 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 58.8 59.6 60.5 61.3 62.9 64.4 66.2 68.1 69.6 70.6 71.1 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 11 10 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 77 66 54 47 55 51 49 39 34 26 23 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 7. 6. 10. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 14. 15. 21. 22. 26. 27. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/04/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/04/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/04/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 4( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)