* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132011 09/04/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 39 40 44 45 41 31 26 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 32 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 32 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 13 21 23 29 33 39 30 29 37 50 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -4 1 2 7 -1 -5 -4 0 -3 -8 SHEAR DIR 236 244 215 212 222 213 211 191 200 216 221 231 235 SST (C) 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.9 30.9 31.0 29.8 29.0 28.7 27.7 26.2 25.0 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 168 169 171 166 150 145 133 117 106 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 155 152 152 155 163 140 121 118 112 99 91 86 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -50.4 -50.1 -49.6 -49.9 -49.9 -50.2 -49.6 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 6 3 3 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 700-500 MB RH 55 57 63 64 57 47 38 37 38 38 41 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 25 25 24 25 25 21 14 11 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 54 86 101 98 108 133 92 95 69 55 27 31 31 200 MB DIV 60 46 35 46 47 52 53 14 49 22 37 6 0 700-850 TADV 4 0 1 -2 -9 -14 10 0 8 -2 -16 -16 -10 LAND (KM) 16 -20 -34 -50 -76 -69 -211 -344 -389 -497 -535 -449 -288 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.3 31.0 32.6 33.6 34.0 35.2 37.4 39.1 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 92.5 92.3 92.0 91.7 91.3 89.9 87.9 86.7 86.0 84.8 82.8 80.6 77.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 3 3 5 9 9 5 6 11 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 4 48 48 48 48 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -22. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -4. -10. -14. -17. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 0. 4. 5. 1. -9. -14. -21. -28. -37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132011 LEE 09/04/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132011 LEE 09/04/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132011 LEE 09/04/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)