* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/04/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 90 92 93 92 94 96 96 98 92 90 88 87 V (KT) LAND 85 90 92 93 92 94 96 96 98 92 90 88 87 V (KT) LGE mod 85 93 98 99 98 95 92 92 94 95 93 90 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 17 14 10 7 5 8 7 3 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 10 5 4 5 1 3 -1 0 -3 1 1 SHEAR DIR 196 191 205 204 214 197 302 286 298 248 167 186 206 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 154 155 154 153 155 153 150 141 135 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 140 140 141 137 134 135 133 129 119 112 108 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -51.3 -51.6 -50.5 -50.3 -49.7 -49.9 -49.0 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 47 48 43 44 50 50 50 51 54 59 60 61 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 19 21 19 21 25 25 30 29 30 32 37 850 MB ENV VOR 30 27 14 20 22 22 14 27 29 44 34 71 99 200 MB DIV 11 21 14 2 7 19 7 21 14 13 62 72 62 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 12 5 9 10 6 8 10 2 8 7 LAND (KM) 808 765 736 718 715 759 846 877 930 860 681 548 477 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.4 24.0 25.1 26.1 27.1 28.0 29.2 30.5 31.8 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 58.8 59.7 60.5 61.5 62.4 64.1 65.4 66.9 68.7 70.2 71.3 71.8 71.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 8 8 9 9 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 66 53 47 57 58 47 47 35 37 29 22 28 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 3. 7. 6. 7. 8. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 8. 7. 9. 11. 11. 13. 7. 5. 3. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/04/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/04/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/04/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 13( 22) 13( 32) 16( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 6( 9) 6( 14) 10( 23) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)