* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132011 09/04/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 42 43 48 47 40 34 27 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 15 19 22 33 32 38 23 30 38 48 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 0 -2 7 -2 1 0 -2 -4 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 269 232 210 212 215 216 199 188 188 215 214 216 232 SST (C) 31.0 31.1 31.0 31.0 31.1 30.9 29.8 28.7 28.0 27.1 26.1 25.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 169 169 170 171 165 146 135 124 114 106 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 156 155 156 161 161 139 120 111 103 95 89 85 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.7 -50.1 -49.9 -49.5 -49.9 -50.2 -49.8 -48.4 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 3 2 3 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 700-500 MB RH 59 65 63 57 51 41 47 43 47 49 48 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 26 25 25 25 27 25 18 14 10 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 90 101 99 115 121 122 104 87 75 53 64 70 96 200 MB DIV 29 46 75 71 52 56 5 27 35 36 20 -10 13 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 -2 -3 15 0 2 -5 -1 -3 1 -34 LAND (KM) 2 -19 -52 -50 -21 -86 -227 -379 -498 -527 -552 -501 -335 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.4 31.2 32.6 33.9 34.9 36.2 37.6 39.0 40.4 LONG(DEG W) 92.0 91.7 91.4 90.9 90.4 88.7 87.1 85.9 85.1 84.1 82.8 81.2 78.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 9 9 7 7 8 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 49 49 49 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -23. -25. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 8. 7. 0. -6. -13. -19. -27. -37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132011 LEE 09/04/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132011 LEE 09/04/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132011 LEE 09/04/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)