* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/04/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 96 97 99 101 103 103 99 98 96 94 88 V (KT) LAND 90 95 96 97 99 101 103 103 99 98 96 94 88 V (KT) LGE mod 90 96 99 99 98 96 94 95 95 95 93 89 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 16 8 8 5 4 6 2 8 5 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 8 4 8 6 7 1 0 -2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 195 181 206 207 176 237 37 291 317 276 217 236 192 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.3 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 155 155 153 154 152 153 149 140 135 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 139 139 138 135 135 131 131 128 119 113 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.1 -50.2 -50.0 -49.4 -49.4 -48.9 -48.5 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 700-500 MB RH 46 42 43 47 48 48 49 49 51 54 59 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 23 22 24 25 26 28 31 29 34 35 38 37 850 MB ENV VOR 29 16 25 28 27 21 28 22 38 31 43 48 63 200 MB DIV 32 14 -11 11 42 -12 33 -7 26 16 64 48 78 700-850 TADV 6 5 6 8 7 8 6 7 6 1 4 11 -1 LAND (KM) 767 732 717 725 747 809 856 903 969 811 616 484 440 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.7 26.7 27.6 28.4 29.4 30.6 32.1 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.7 61.6 62.4 63.2 64.8 66.4 67.8 69.2 70.7 72.2 72.4 71.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 52 49 58 56 52 49 42 34 32 27 24 30 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -10. -15. -19. -22. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -3. 0. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 6. 10. 11. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 9. 8. 6. 4. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/04/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/04/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/04/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 19( 29) 21( 44) 23( 57) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 10( 15) 30( 40) 38( 63) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)