* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132011 09/04/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 47 51 45 38 31 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 22 25 25 30 33 25 24 29 34 34 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 -3 3 6 3 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 237 213 210 220 213 207 187 176 216 225 243 227 234 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.8 30.7 29.9 28.9 28.3 27.8 27.2 26.3 25.6 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 170 170 167 149 138 131 125 115 109 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 151 154 153 140 122 111 105 102 95 90 87 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -50.6 -50.6 -50.3 -50.1 -49.8 -49.7 -49.8 -49.6 -48.7 -48.3 -48.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 3 1 3 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 3 700-500 MB RH 67 67 59 50 47 42 44 49 46 51 45 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 25 26 26 28 21 16 13 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 96 96 115 130 142 98 112 77 74 58 43 -12 -31 200 MB DIV 58 77 62 44 53 21 46 52 42 37 -9 -22 -20 700-850 TADV 4 -4 -8 -6 -21 1 2 2 0 0 -4 -5 -12 LAND (KM) -67 -103 -87 -79 -120 -189 -349 -455 -532 -644 -740 -765 -639 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.6 30.8 31.1 31.4 32.4 33.7 34.6 35.3 36.3 37.7 38.9 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 91.8 91.4 90.9 90.3 89.6 88.1 86.9 86.4 86.4 86.2 85.6 84.6 82.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 8 6 4 4 6 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 47 47 41 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -4. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 5. -2. -9. -15. -24. -32. -40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132011 LEE 09/04/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132011 LEE 09/04/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132011 LEE 09/04/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)