* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/05/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 94 97 99 100 94 93 91 88 84 80 76 V (KT) LAND 90 91 94 97 99 100 94 93 91 88 84 80 76 V (KT) LGE mod 90 92 92 93 93 92 91 90 88 87 85 81 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 3 1 2 7 13 12 8 4 4 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 10 13 8 2 3 0 -1 -3 4 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 157 194 155 241 14 59 6 305 287 345 162 222 242 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 155 155 155 154 152 153 148 142 134 132 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 139 139 138 135 132 132 126 121 113 110 107 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.4 -49.5 -49.6 -49.1 -49.4 -49.0 -49.3 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 43 42 46 46 48 50 50 52 57 60 49 43 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 24 27 28 28 30 28 31 33 33 32 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 31 30 26 28 22 19 27 43 96 -39 -49 200 MB DIV 18 1 17 51 0 35 -21 23 16 52 35 13 23 700-850 TADV 4 7 7 11 6 1 8 1 1 3 7 4 3 LAND (KM) 744 740 749 771 807 894 925 992 869 693 518 423 446 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.6 27.5 28.5 29.5 30.7 32.2 33.7 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 60.6 61.5 62.3 63.1 63.9 65.4 66.7 68.2 69.7 70.9 71.8 71.8 71.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 48 55 53 49 48 45 34 31 26 20 28 24 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -10. -15. -20. -23. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/05/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/05/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/05/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 16( 26) 21( 42) 22( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 23( 30) 52( 66) 56( 85) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)