* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132011 09/05/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 42 43 37 31 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 24 30 36 36 27 32 33 40 43 33 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 0 4 0 1 -4 -4 -6 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 233 229 223 227 228 218 216 215 226 225 220 229 222 SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.4 29.3 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 170 155 144 137 131 126 121 117 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 149 152 152 148 127 117 110 104 100 96 95 93 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.7 -50.8 -50.2 -49.6 -49.0 -48.3 -48.9 -48.3 -47.7 -47.5 -48.2 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 1 3 3 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 4 700-500 MB RH 66 58 49 43 39 35 27 28 30 26 27 28 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 24 26 26 24 18 13 11 10 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 87 107 130 149 134 109 116 95 99 119 101 85 47 200 MB DIV 60 52 53 68 54 8 12 15 1 -8 -18 -19 -4 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -6 -9 16 7 10 7 0 -3 4 -15 -1 LAND (KM) -123 -116 -86 -126 -163 -266 -360 -454 -532 -597 -652 -724 -741 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.5 31.9 33.1 33.9 34.7 35.4 36.0 36.5 37.1 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 91.7 91.1 90.5 89.8 89.0 88.0 87.4 87.0 86.9 86.9 86.9 86.5 85.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 46 47 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -22. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 2. -4. -11. -19. -28. -34. -41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132011 LEE 09/05/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132011 LEE 09/05/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132011 LEE 09/05/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)