* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/05/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 89 90 93 94 93 91 88 87 83 75 74 V (KT) LAND 85 86 89 90 93 94 93 91 88 87 83 75 74 V (KT) LGE mod 85 84 84 85 87 88 89 88 85 83 80 77 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 7 10 8 5 16 11 8 5 8 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 4 0 2 8 0 1 -4 3 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 202 218 287 305 340 319 326 338 273 249 227 220 241 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 155 155 154 153 148 142 133 129 129 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 139 138 137 134 132 127 121 112 108 106 109 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 -49.2 -49.7 -49.4 -49.0 -48.4 -48.4 -48.9 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 43 44 45 47 46 51 54 56 58 60 52 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 31 27 32 29 33 35 33 35 34 32 38 850 MB ENV VOR 31 30 32 28 21 31 22 23 32 71 73 -50 -73 200 MB DIV -10 15 51 18 -22 23 11 51 47 71 18 12 8 700-850 TADV 7 9 10 6 1 8 19 11 10 16 8 2 -5 LAND (KM) 732 744 771 812 865 929 996 918 714 562 498 561 631 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.3 24.9 25.6 26.2 27.3 28.4 29.5 30.9 32.4 34.2 35.4 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 62.3 63.1 63.9 64.7 66.1 67.5 69.0 70.4 71.0 70.7 69.7 68.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 56 53 49 48 46 38 30 26 15 25 16 16 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -12. -17. -20. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 0. 3. 2. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 3. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 2. -2. -10. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/05/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/05/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/05/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 14( 31) 16( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 13 33( 42) 33( 61) 50( 80) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)