* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 09/05/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 36 39 41 41 41 41 42 44 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 36 39 41 41 41 41 42 44 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 25 29 31 31 29 27 26 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 4 2 6 6 10 16 20 24 30 27 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 12 11 13 15 13 13 7 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 120 326 37 298 229 238 251 259 263 276 292 292 300 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 134 137 144 143 141 139 142 147 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 132 134 139 149 149 146 143 144 147 144 142 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 73 75 75 76 72 70 61 61 59 62 61 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 41 40 41 39 38 30 5 -20 -35 -44 -47 -50 200 MB DIV 79 58 56 61 44 49 -2 0 11 22 3 21 25 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 17 21 22 17 19 15 LAND (KM) 1326 1403 1482 1570 1654 1656 1665 1493 1342 1249 1222 1083 1040 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.2 11.0 11.9 13.0 14.1 15.3 16.3 17.5 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 28.5 29.3 30.1 31.1 32.0 34.6 37.6 41.1 44.5 47.9 51.0 53.7 55.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 10 11 14 17 17 17 17 15 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 24 22 20 24 23 29 25 36 71 71 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 9. 5. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. 22. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 09/05/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 09/05/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)