* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/05/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 100 104 104 103 98 92 88 81 72 66 57 V (KT) LAND 95 98 100 104 104 103 98 92 88 81 72 66 57 V (KT) LGE mod 95 97 98 99 99 97 93 88 83 78 72 67 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 6 9 13 14 12 6 1 23 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 1 2 4 6 0 -1 1 12 3 8 8 SHEAR DIR 206 233 311 342 329 319 320 306 352 76 216 221 239 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 153 153 151 148 142 133 128 128 134 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 138 136 134 131 127 122 113 109 108 113 106 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -49.2 -49.6 -49.0 -49.0 -48.1 -48.2 -49.0 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 45 43 42 44 47 50 56 56 65 56 54 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 32 27 34 32 34 34 32 35 36 33 35 33 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 27 22 32 20 25 22 57 79 62 -88 -74 200 MB DIV 28 55 14 -16 18 -15 55 41 53 62 29 3 -1 700-850 TADV 2 4 2 2 8 6 12 10 19 19 9 0 -25 LAND (KM) 724 754 799 856 897 954 992 794 598 533 581 565 586 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.9 25.5 26.2 26.8 27.9 29.0 30.4 32.2 34.2 36.4 37.9 38.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 63.4 64.2 65.0 65.7 67.1 68.5 69.8 70.7 70.3 68.8 66.0 62.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 10 11 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 56 51 49 47 43 33 30 17 23 11 26 5 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -7. -15. -22. -28. -32. -34. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 0. 2. 1. 3. 3. 2. 4. 5. 2. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 9. 8. 3. -3. -7. -14. -23. -29. -38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/05/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/05/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/05/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 22( 35) 26( 52) 25( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 15 26( 37) 35( 59) 17( 66) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)