* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132011 09/05/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 38 37 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 35 37 34 43 47 49 51 42 41 36 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 7 2 0 2 -1 -4 -6 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 228 232 225 231 226 215 206 207 204 211 238 235 269 SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.2 29.8 29.3 28.2 27.1 26.3 25.9 25.6 24.9 24.3 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 165 156 139 125 114 110 108 103 99 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 146 138 131 117 104 93 89 88 86 83 79 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.2 -49.6 -49.4 -49.2 -48.5 -48.6 -48.5 -47.5 -46.6 -47.9 -49.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 4 3 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 700-500 MB RH 55 47 41 38 39 34 35 30 36 39 38 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 26 26 23 23 17 13 11 9 8 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 145 144 132 107 105 102 85 93 111 91 62 43 13 200 MB DIV 46 77 62 23 10 29 10 15 4 -11 3 1 15 700-850 TADV -1 0 11 22 17 19 20 17 11 11 -5 2 0 LAND (KM) -7 -72 -115 -156 -227 -385 -470 -520 -527 -539 -604 -719 -888 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.0 31.6 32.1 32.6 33.9 35.5 36.8 37.3 37.8 39.2 40.7 41.5 LONG(DEG W) 90.2 89.4 88.6 87.9 87.1 85.5 84.1 83.3 82.8 82.2 82.4 83.5 85.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 9 9 9 5 3 5 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 32 33 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -10. -18. -24. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -20. -23. -24. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 2. -2. -11. -20. -32. -43. -54. -60. -67. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132011 LEE 09/05/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132011 LEE 09/05/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132011 LEE 09/05/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)