* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 09/05/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 39 43 49 54 56 55 55 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 39 43 49 54 56 55 55 54 56 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 32 36 40 47 52 54 53 51 49 48 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 4 3 8 7 14 19 22 23 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 5 5 9 10 10 15 9 6 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 84 39 92 193 218 216 233 261 272 285 296 295 309 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 139 142 145 146 144 146 144 145 149 151 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 144 147 150 150 150 150 147 146 149 152 153 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 -54.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 73 75 76 77 75 73 67 62 61 61 63 63 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 34 34 34 40 33 31 8 -7 -24 -26 -29 -38 200 MB DIV 57 56 62 47 43 43 7 19 7 15 -3 22 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 12 17 15 15 14 8 LAND (KM) 1450 1582 1630 1604 1592 1576 1427 1249 1144 1085 1037 844 754 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 15 16 15 15 14 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 24 25 26 25 30 33 39 53 61 66 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 24. 29. 31. 30. 30. 29. 31. 33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 09/05/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 09/05/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)