* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 09/05/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 39 43 49 54 55 56 56 56 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 39 43 49 54 55 56 56 56 57 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 32 36 40 48 53 54 54 54 53 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 3 2 5 7 8 16 18 20 23 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 3 5 7 14 11 8 8 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 67 103 176 178 233 239 270 277 286 288 295 288 310 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 144 145 145 144 144 144 146 149 149 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 146 149 151 150 149 148 147 148 150 149 151 150 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.9 -55.2 -55.0 -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 76 76 78 75 75 72 64 64 63 65 61 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 36 41 39 35 19 3 0 -9 -20 -18 -15 200 MB DIV 65 56 51 36 54 25 3 8 13 13 25 27 31 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 5 3 3 8 9 10 LAND (KM) 1623 1614 1575 1554 1549 1504 1313 1174 1061 1044 894 785 561 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 27 24 23 28 32 36 45 65 65 77 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 24. 29. 31. 31. 31. 31. 32. 34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 09/05/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 5.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 57% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 37% is 7.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 09/05/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)