* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/06/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 119 115 113 108 104 97 88 82 76 67 55 V (KT) LAND 115 118 119 115 113 108 104 97 88 82 76 67 55 V (KT) LGE mod 115 119 118 115 111 104 96 89 83 79 76 68 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 7 13 15 19 7 9 12 26 45 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 7 0 -2 -5 0 0 5 8 5 3 SHEAR DIR 313 308 310 350 314 308 293 295 258 227 235 252 258 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.7 27.2 27.0 26.1 23.7 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 151 151 148 142 133 128 127 119 101 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 134 132 131 127 121 114 110 110 105 92 81 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.0 -49.5 -50.2 -49.8 -49.4 -48.5 -49.0 -48.6 -48.8 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 9 7 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 48 50 56 57 65 66 63 48 32 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 31 34 29 31 32 36 34 33 35 36 38 36 850 MB ENV VOR 23 18 20 14 9 9 12 16 25 12 66 92 88 200 MB DIV 0 -3 55 12 -11 34 47 27 32 99 60 -15 -9 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 -3 0 11 13 28 30 7 -18 -21 -65 LAND (KM) 815 866 918 941 974 998 821 640 532 516 442 512 511 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.2 26.8 27.4 28.0 29.2 30.5 32.4 34.9 37.4 39.7 41.4 42.7 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 64.7 65.3 66.1 66.8 68.2 69.3 70.0 70.1 68.1 63.9 57.6 49.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 11 13 17 22 27 29 HEAT CONTENT 48 46 43 37 32 29 21 18 13 1 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -21. -32. -43. -51. -56. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 2. 6. 9. 9. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 0. 1. 3. 6. 5. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 0. -2. -7. -11. -18. -27. -33. -39. -48. -60. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/06/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/06/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/06/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 33( 54) 30( 68) 28( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 38 32( 58) 34( 72) 19( 77) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)