* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/06/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 110 107 104 101 97 91 84 83 77 72 60 V (KT) LAND 110 111 110 107 104 101 97 91 84 83 77 72 60 V (KT) LGE mod 110 111 110 107 104 98 90 84 80 79 77 73 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 13 15 12 16 13 11 12 18 42 83 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 8 2 -2 0 -3 -3 -2 8 5 13 4 SHEAR DIR 284 299 322 320 316 303 302 234 237 233 240 238 237 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 27.9 27.3 27.1 27.1 25.3 23.2 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 151 150 145 135 129 127 128 113 100 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 132 132 130 125 116 110 108 112 102 93 96 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.3 -49.9 -50.0 -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 -49.0 -49.2 -49.4 -49.7 -48.2 -47.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 11 12 11 9 7 4 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 45 43 49 50 52 55 58 62 65 61 49 31 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 34 31 30 31 34 35 33 32 35 35 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR 15 19 16 14 3 10 4 18 0 7 88 123 196 200 MB DIV 0 70 -5 -8 21 86 37 31 5 136 53 9 34 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -1 -7 7 3 21 24 11 -4 -41 -63 -97 LAND (KM) 864 905 929 967 1016 887 692 575 563 514 561 567 870 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.8 27.3 28.0 28.6 30.0 31.7 34.0 36.5 38.6 40.0 41.6 43.2 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 65.5 66.1 66.9 67.6 68.9 69.9 69.9 69.0 65.9 60.5 52.7 43.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 12 14 19 26 33 36 HEAT CONTENT 46 43 38 32 29 25 12 7 28 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -19. -30. -39. -47. -51. -55. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. 0. 4. 7. 8. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 1. 4. 3. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -26. -27. -33. -38. -50. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/06/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/06/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/06/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 26( 63) 23( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 7( 12) 4( 15) 0( 15) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)