* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 09/06/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 45 50 54 58 64 69 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 45 50 54 58 64 69 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 39 42 45 50 56 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 2 3 3 9 13 11 15 16 15 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 12 13 13 9 8 3 4 0 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 327 332 295 322 331 305 293 296 305 342 344 10 351 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 143 145 144 143 145 146 150 151 154 153 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 142 146 150 150 150 151 151 155 155 155 150 148 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 71 71 65 64 62 63 60 62 64 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 45 40 35 34 18 0 0 5 12 15 23 24 200 MB DIV 69 48 32 29 16 28 39 44 37 36 40 55 31 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -3 -6 -2 3 4 2 8 12 16 18 LAND (KM) 1691 1679 1652 1623 1611 1428 1243 1081 972 793 637 521 257 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 12.0 12.9 13.6 14.1 14.9 15.9 16.9 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 32.5 33.6 34.7 36.2 37.6 41.0 44.4 47.9 51.5 55.0 58.3 61.0 63.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 17 18 17 18 17 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 24 20 25 32 31 43 64 66 74 67 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 39. 44. 47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 09/06/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 09/06/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)