* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/06/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 100 99 97 95 88 80 77 76 69 67 63 V (KT) LAND 105 101 100 99 97 95 88 80 77 76 69 67 63 V (KT) LGE mod 105 101 98 96 94 90 84 80 77 78 76 68 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 15 16 13 10 7 8 10 28 73 81 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 0 0 1 0 2 4 6 10 15 5 SHEAR DIR 301 321 320 301 307 295 325 284 256 221 244 244 218 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.2 27.6 27.2 27.4 26.9 25.0 21.8 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 150 148 139 131 127 131 128 112 94 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 132 131 129 119 112 108 113 114 104 90 86 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.1 -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 -49.9 -50.2 -48.7 -49.6 -49.2 -49.0 -47.9 -47.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 11 12 9 8 5 4 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 45 48 50 50 55 53 61 64 61 51 38 25 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 29 31 33 32 35 33 31 34 36 34 45 52 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 13 -1 1 7 12 8 1 39 140 203 165 200 MB DIV 67 8 -22 4 38 52 46 28 67 65 17 31 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 -5 5 3 8 24 21 1 0 -2 -23 -117 LAND (KM) 893 912 939 999 991 777 631 621 572 538 648 663 1323 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.2 27.7 28.5 29.2 30.9 32.7 34.9 37.1 39.0 40.6 42.6 45.0 LONG(DEG W) 65.6 66.3 66.9 67.6 68.3 69.5 69.9 69.1 67.4 63.1 56.3 47.0 36.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 9 10 12 16 23 32 39 41 HEAT CONTENT 44 39 34 30 29 17 18 11 5 22 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -17. -28. -36. -42. -46. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -2. 3. 7. 10. 10. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. -1. -3. -1. 1. -1. 8. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -17. -25. -28. -29. -36. -38. -42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/06/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/06/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/06/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 22( 43) 20( 54) 17( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 12( 16) 3( 19) 0( 19) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)