* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/06/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 91 91 91 90 84 80 78 74 71 60 66 V (KT) LAND 95 92 91 91 91 90 84 80 78 74 71 60 66 V (KT) LGE mod 95 90 88 86 85 83 80 77 77 74 68 61 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 13 16 7 14 11 6 10 16 41 72 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 0 1 2 -2 -3 2 7 7 16 12 9 SHEAR DIR 317 341 316 305 307 310 268 285 216 209 231 222 205 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.2 24.3 21.0 20.2 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 148 145 135 129 128 130 106 91 88 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 130 129 125 116 110 110 114 97 86 84 74 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -50.5 -50.7 -50.2 -50.4 -49.3 -49.5 -49.8 -49.7 -48.7 -47.7 -46.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 5 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 50 52 53 54 59 60 63 63 55 39 32 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 29 29 31 29 32 30 34 34 35 40 38 52 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 2 1 4 -2 17 -11 0 76 135 198 274 200 MB DIV 16 18 34 53 71 36 36 35 117 29 64 43 55 700-850 TADV -2 -9 2 11 -3 13 14 14 2 -25 -78 -191 -108 LAND (KM) 916 949 989 980 874 678 561 591 528 514 483 907 1300 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.9 28.4 29.2 29.9 31.8 33.9 36.3 38.5 40.6 42.5 46.3 51.5 LONG(DEG W) 66.4 67.1 67.8 68.5 69.2 70.0 70.1 68.8 65.8 60.0 51.5 41.0 29.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 10 11 15 20 29 37 45 46 HEAT CONTENT 36 31 28 28 23 11 10 19 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -13. -21. -27. -34. -38. -42. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 4. 7. 9. 7. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 4. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -11. -15. -17. -21. -24. -35. -29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/06/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/06/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/06/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 12( 27) 12( 36) 12( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 11 9( 19) 1( 20) 0( 20) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)