* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 09/06/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 47 56 63 68 70 73 73 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 29 28 32 37 39 42 42 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 27 27 31 37 42 45 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 10 12 11 10 4 10 16 26 22 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 0 0 0 -1 1 1 -3 -6 -4 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 32 32 26 41 50 73 103 86 95 105 114 105 94 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 166 163 161 163 163 162 160 155 149 143 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 152 149 149 153 153 152 149 146 142 138 135 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 62 60 58 59 61 63 66 61 66 66 67 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 11 12 12 13 13 16 18 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 36 38 41 53 36 -10 -30 -21 -25 -19 10 200 MB DIV 43 41 41 55 36 36 37 36 45 54 34 29 30 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 3 6 0 2 -1 0 1 0 2 3 LAND (KM) 248 193 140 75 5 -168 -87 36 136 232 352 494 632 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.3 19.9 19.5 19.0 17.9 17.0 16.2 15.6 15.0 14.3 13.5 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.3 94.8 95.4 95.9 97.1 98.3 99.3 100.2 101.0 102.1 103.4 105.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 6 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 40 34 0 0 62 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 22. 31. 38. 43. 45. 48. 48. 50. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 09/06/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 09/06/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 09/06/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)