* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/07/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 84 83 84 82 78 71 71 66 63 64 62 V (KT) LAND 90 86 84 83 84 82 78 71 71 66 63 64 62 V (KT) LGE mod 90 85 82 81 80 77 75 73 71 66 59 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 17 12 8 16 14 22 21 45 62 73 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 3 6 -4 -2 3 5 5 4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 322 311 296 305 310 292 285 231 235 239 225 214 213 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.2 27.1 25.6 21.8 19.6 15.7 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 145 141 133 128 128 115 94 87 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 128 126 121 114 109 111 104 89 82 75 72 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -49.9 -49.9 -50.0 -48.9 -49.4 -49.4 -49.7 -48.8 -47.7 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 11 9 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 51 54 52 54 60 65 67 54 46 43 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 32 35 31 35 34 34 32 36 35 41 51 55 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 -13 -20 31 134 160 241 218 200 MB DIV -18 7 57 81 43 41 50 45 71 49 72 94 81 700-850 TADV -3 7 11 3 9 28 15 2 -4 -69 -188 -97 -57 LAND (KM) 950 996 1020 910 800 656 599 513 433 466 731 1435 943 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.4 29.0 29.8 30.6 32.7 35.2 37.7 40.0 42.6 45.4 50.0 55.7 LONG(DEG W) 66.9 67.5 68.1 68.8 69.5 69.6 69.3 67.4 63.2 55.2 43.8 33.3 24.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 13 17 26 38 42 40 38 HEAT CONTENT 31 26 27 23 19 14 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -18. -24. -31. -35. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. -2. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 0. 4. 3. 7. 16. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -6. -8. -12. -19. -19. -24. -27. -26. -28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/07/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/07/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/07/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 9( 27) 8( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)