* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142011 09/07/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 45 47 48 50 58 61 66 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 45 47 48 50 58 61 66 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 38 38 38 38 40 44 51 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 10 12 15 18 18 14 9 5 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 8 11 16 8 7 0 2 0 5 2 6 SHEAR DIR 257 246 228 225 242 243 233 238 225 235 316 344 317 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 147 147 148 151 150 153 152 154 156 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 154 158 155 152 154 152 152 149 149 153 148 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 64 61 59 61 58 61 63 63 66 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 13 12 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 36 27 22 11 13 8 10 1 8 -2 -5 200 MB DIV 41 33 13 18 39 18 36 30 41 35 71 46 37 700-850 TADV -2 -1 9 5 0 2 -2 1 0 7 5 8 12 LAND (KM) 1619 1569 1413 1275 1164 1040 974 808 635 603 388 114 144 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.5 14.2 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.6 17.9 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 39.2 41.1 43.2 45.2 48.5 51.8 54.9 57.8 60.4 62.5 64.7 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 20 20 18 17 16 15 13 12 11 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 30 33 37 52 68 72 81 79 78 65 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 28. 31. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 FOURTEEN 09/07/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 FOURTEEN 09/07/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 FOURTEEN 09/07/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)