* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 09/07/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 34 41 50 58 61 67 68 69 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 34 28 27 32 35 41 42 43 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 27 27 31 36 41 46 50 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 11 13 10 9 6 11 15 20 16 13 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 27 20 47 53 84 100 103 96 98 102 106 98 98 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 166 162 161 161 160 160 157 152 146 142 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 152 152 149 149 150 150 150 148 145 142 139 137 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 6 7 3 5 3 6 4 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 62 60 56 62 59 65 62 65 66 66 68 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 17 15 13 5 850 MB ENV VOR 21 30 35 42 49 44 27 8 1 2 -3 16 18 200 MB DIV 48 48 44 28 2 38 44 46 56 47 46 31 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 5 5 2 0 0 -2 0 -1 1 2 LAND (KM) 248 192 136 69 2 -162 -85 39 150 282 426 584 715 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.2 19.8 19.3 18.8 17.6 16.7 15.7 14.9 13.9 13.0 12.1 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.2 94.6 95.1 95.5 96.6 97.5 98.2 98.9 99.6 100.8 102.3 104.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 40 24 2 0 57 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 6. 4. 2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 16. 25. 33. 36. 42. 43. 44. 39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 09/07/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 09/07/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 09/07/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)