* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/07/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 76 77 75 75 72 72 68 61 53 41 35 V (KT) LAND 80 77 76 77 75 75 72 72 68 61 53 41 35 V (KT) LGE mod 80 76 74 73 73 71 70 70 68 63 55 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 18 8 11 11 14 28 50 70 84 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 2 1 0 1 9 3 12 12 2 0 SHEAR DIR 297 286 311 308 291 287 236 228 243 241 239 234 223 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.4 27.3 27.1 24.0 18.8 19.4 14.3 12.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 141 137 130 130 129 104 84 86 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 126 122 118 111 112 114 97 81 82 73 72 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.1 -49.7 -49.8 -48.9 -49.2 -49.2 -49.2 -48.1 -47.4 -45.5 -46.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 10 9 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 52 52 50 56 62 63 53 42 34 36 42 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 34 31 35 31 34 33 36 37 38 39 38 37 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -10 -8 -15 -9 -2 -15 -1 95 161 218 249 299 200 MB DIV 2 68 98 53 33 37 56 101 9 32 58 36 45 700-850 TADV 9 16 4 9 17 22 11 11 4 -34 -14 -41 -74 LAND (KM) 994 1013 924 814 706 622 594 501 502 435 1130 1246 869 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 29.1 29.7 30.7 31.6 33.9 36.5 39.0 41.0 43.6 46.7 51.8 58.1 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.2 68.7 69.3 69.8 69.4 68.3 65.0 58.9 49.7 37.9 28.5 21.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 11 12 16 21 31 41 41 38 36 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 24 19 11 6 18 16 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. -3. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -21. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. 1. 0. 3. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -5. -5. -8. -8. -12. -19. -27. -39. -45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/07/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/07/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/07/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 5( 16) 5( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)