* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 09/07/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 53 59 65 70 72 67 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 36 30 28 27 27 29 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 33 29 27 27 27 30 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 7 7 6 8 8 11 9 2 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 -2 0 0 0 -6 -1 -2 8 1 5 SHEAR DIR 20 37 56 88 93 123 114 152 129 152 190 120 228 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 168 168 167 166 162 162 161 163 163 166 167 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 149 150 149 150 147 147 146 147 150 155 158 151 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 61 57 55 56 52 51 59 55 59 59 61 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 12 14 12 15 17 17 9 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 27 36 38 45 42 42 24 38 45 50 52 27 200 MB DIV 59 45 26 5 30 14 35 29 37 60 27 65 7 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 3 2 4 0 3 0 -1 -9 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 225 232 235 195 157 46 -63 -167 -223 -152 -63 22 89 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.3 20.0 19.4 18.9 18.5 18.3 17.9 17.5 17.4 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.6 93.9 94.3 94.6 95.7 96.6 97.5 98.2 98.9 100.0 101.5 103.4 STM SPEED (KT) 0 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 38 40 40 19 48 0 0 66 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 4. 5. 5. -2. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 28. 34. 40. 45. 47. 42. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 09/07/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 09/07/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 09/07/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)