* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/07/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 70 69 70 69 70 70 66 60 52 41 31 V (KT) LAND 75 71 70 69 70 69 70 70 66 60 52 41 31 V (KT) LGE mod 75 71 69 68 68 67 68 70 67 59 50 44 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 15 10 11 4 10 17 39 67 83 55 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 0 0 4 6 8 11 14 9 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 295 292 293 308 308 302 256 232 247 248 236 223 228 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.2 27.7 25.6 23.1 20.2 16.0 13.5 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 142 137 133 128 136 115 100 88 79 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 124 122 118 114 110 118 104 94 84 76 73 72 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.2 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -49.3 -49.9 -49.1 -48.8 -47.1 -46.0 -46.4 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 9 8 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 58 60 63 64 50 39 35 39 55 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 32 33 31 34 32 35 38 39 42 46 42 34 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 -3 -8 8 -16 -18 33 154 207 243 259 351 200 MB DIV 70 102 54 36 33 56 89 65 27 61 62 53 32 700-850 TADV 14 15 16 21 29 20 5 2 -11 -33 -100 -43 -7 LAND (KM) 999 913 828 737 656 653 583 533 533 740 1541 756 645 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.8 30.6 31.7 32.7 35.2 37.5 39.8 41.9 45.1 49.2 55.3 62.3 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.8 69.1 69.4 69.6 68.7 66.3 61.4 54.0 43.8 31.7 21.5 13.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 14 18 26 35 43 44 41 40 HEAT CONTENT 29 23 19 11 14 17 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 0. -6. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -18. -22. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 3. 3. 6. 9. 5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. -9. -15. -23. -34. -44. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/07/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/07/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/07/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 4( 12) 3( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)