* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 09/07/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 52 60 65 67 71 70 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 7 8 6 11 8 8 6 8 2 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 0 -3 -4 -2 -2 0 4 0 4 SHEAR DIR 38 33 63 94 116 145 142 159 178 172 37 37 18 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 164 165 163 159 159 160 160 163 164 167 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 146 149 147 144 142 143 143 148 151 156 156 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 4 3 6 3 6 3 8 4 7 4 700-500 MB RH 60 55 55 55 51 56 56 58 57 59 56 59 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 17 17 19 13 8 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 35 40 40 39 37 36 51 38 52 51 42 200 MB DIV 41 28 24 34 20 18 49 47 53 39 37 58 14 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 5 2 3 1 1 1 -2 -6 2 LAND (KM) 206 201 196 152 112 33 -32 -78 -140 -200 -172 -121 -22 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.2 20.1 19.9 19.6 19.1 18.8 18.8 18.5 18.4 18.1 18.2 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 93.4 93.7 93.9 94.3 94.7 95.5 96.2 96.7 97.2 97.8 98.9 100.3 102.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 5 5 4 3 2 3 4 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 35 38 40 10 47 48 0 0 66 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 27. 35. 40. 42. 46. 45. 42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 09/07/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 09/07/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 09/07/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)