* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 68 68 67 70 72 70 67 61 51 40 37 V (KT) LAND 70 67 68 68 67 70 72 70 67 61 51 40 37 V (KT) LGE mod 70 67 66 66 66 67 70 69 64 56 48 45 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 14 16 9 2 11 14 25 48 65 49 45 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -2 0 5 2 9 6 14 11 3 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 308 293 302 300 261 224 213 239 244 242 227 246 N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.1 24.3 19.7 17.3 13.5 13.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 137 133 130 130 130 107 87 81 76 74 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 123 118 115 112 113 116 101 83 78 73 72 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.6 -51.3 -50.8 -49.7 -49.7 -49.2 -49.6 -48.7 -47.1 -47.0 -46.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 9 7 5 2 1 1 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 57 59 59 62 56 43 39 44 47 52 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 32 30 34 34 30 34 35 36 39 42 39 35 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 1 5 4 -24 -6 97 170 192 269 260 N/A 200 MB DIV 83 63 49 36 39 21 151 33 58 37 22 24 N/A 700-850 TADV 7 12 25 24 22 7 -6 -14 -8 6 -61 23 N/A LAND (KM) 905 808 713 652 612 603 506 545 582 1301 853 384 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 30.4 31.4 32.6 33.7 36.5 39.0 41.1 43.6 47.7 53.7 58.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.3 69.6 69.9 69.8 69.6 68.1 64.5 57.5 47.1 35.4 23.0 12.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 17 24 35 43 47 43 36 N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 20 10 15 9 17 26 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -21. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 4. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. -2. -3. 0. 2. 0. -3. -9. -19. -30. -33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/07/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 3( 10) 4( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)